Cade Massey is a Professor at the Wharton School where his research focuses on judgment under uncertainty, or how, and how well, people predict what will happen in the future. In particular, he studies people analytics, or how to predict who will perform well in the future. Cade is the co-host of the “Wharton Moneyball” podcast and for many years, he’s studied talent selection at the NFL draft, which frames our discussion in advance of this year’s draft next week.

Our conversation starts with Cade’s work in the NFL with data, character assessment, and performance measurement. We turn to decision-making lessons, including the importance of independence, understanding objectives, tracking decisions, and overcoming algorithm aversion. Along the way, we touch on stories from his work with Google, Wharton’s MBA Admissions, and Teach for America. We close with advice for allocators and insights for this year’s NFL draft.